Territorial Dispute between Japan and Two Chinas Will Cause the United States Heartburn

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“There is no family without problems.” This is an old Chinese saying that has its equivalent all over the world. Unfortunately, this concept can be applied to countries as well, “there is no country without problems.” Recently, a small budget privately produced documentary made has created a mass hysteria within the Muslim population causing mass anti-American demonstrations around the world. This crisis not only cost the lives of four American diplomats, but much property damage as well. The worst thing we have lost is our good will with the Muslim countries. I truly hope this crisis ends soon.
At this moment, there are many anti-Japanese protests in China (with more than 180 cities participating) over recent actions of the Japanese government to nationalize three islandswhich both Taiwan and China believe that Japan has no legitimate right to do. The Taiwan Foreign Ministry has lodged a strong protest to Japan, calling the recent actions as “an extremely unfriendly move.” The President Ma Ying-jeou of the republic of China ( an international law scholar) based on the theories of international law indicates recently that,the Diaoyutais are under the administrative jurisdiction of Yilan county, Taiwan and therefore an inherent part of the sovereign territory of the Republic of China. China has also taken similar actions in claiming the ownership of those islands. In a recent speech to overseas Chinese, Chinese Prime Minister Wen delivered a speech in which he stated that China has been steadfast in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity and that it will make no concessions this time. He further stated that the disputed islands have always been part of the Chinese territory. China has even submitted a nautical chart to the United Nations with the outline of the territorial sea on those dispute islands. As we can see, all the parties are very serious and have tried to better position themselves for future rounds.
The islands in dispute are uninhabited islands known as the Diaoyutai in Taiwan, Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. The disputed islands are close to important shipping lanes and rich fishing grounds. Recently, the survey of the area has shown that there are large natural gas and oil reserves under the seabed. Please note that this dispute is not a recent dispute. It has a long history. Because of other issues of national importance, the issue of these islands has been pushed aside but not forgotten. The recent discovery of natural gas and oil reserves has rekindled the dispute with Japan’s recent actions adding fuel to the fire.
In general, territorial disputes between countries can be resolved by legal settlement. The disputing parties can ask the International Court of Justice to resolve the dispute. The main issue with the procedures of the International Court of Justice is that disputing parties have to all agree to subject themselves to the jurisdiction of the court. In other words, all of the disputing parties have to sign an agreement allowing the ICJ to resolve the matter. Unfortunately, in this case, none of the parties are willing to let an impartial third party (in this case, the ICJ) to decide such an important matter. Because the sovereignty of those islands and natural gas and oil reserves are of vital to the national interests of each country, the stakes are too high. China, Japan and Taiwan want more control over the resolution of the dispute.
Based on this, a legal settlement is not much of a possibility. The other option is a political settlement. In a political settlement, each party uses its own power to achieve its goal. This is typically accomplished through negotiations, threat or use of force until a settlement is achieved. Japan is an economic giant. China is a rising power both from an economic and military perspective. Taiwan is a small but has a strong economy and military. On paper, it would seem that Japan would be in a disadvantaged position, but let’s not jump to conclusions just yet.
If there is a military conflict involving Japan, the United States willinevitably get involved. Even through the United States does not have an official position on the merits with respect to the competing territorial claims of the islands, it does however have an obligation to protect Japan. The top expert on the United States’ policy on East Asia, Kurt Campbell said last week that the disputed islands fall may within the scope of 1960 United States Japan Security Treaty, if Japan were threatened with military action. The treaty provides that the United States is required to defend Japan in the event of armed attacks. In the interest of peace, Campbell renewed his call for diplomatic settlement among the disputed parties. One interesting factor in all of this is that Defense Secretary Panetta has stressed the importance of Sino-US relations with more closer military ties with China. From the United States’ perspective, how do we resolve this internal conflict.
This conflict show what a difficult position of our role is in Asia. On the one hand, we have an obligation to Japan under a treaty. On the other hand, we need China’s support in many international issues. Furthermore, the United States owes China $1.5 Trillion. Based on this, I don’t see how we could engage in any military action against China.
One thing to keep in mind is that if Israel were to attack Iran, we would involved. If China wages military action against Japan, we would also get involved. The United States is involved everywhere. It seems that Japan, Taiwan, and China are gearing up for something. The big question is whether President Obama or Governor Romney is ready for the challenge.